Predictive models for ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease diagnosis and disease activity in transplant clinical practice.

Ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease is one of the most bothersome common complications following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The National Institutes of Health Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease Consensus Project provided expert recommendations for diagnosis and organ severity scoring. However, ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease can be diagnosed only after examination by an ophthalmologist. There are no currently accepted definitions of ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease activity. The goal of this study was to identify predictive models of diagnosis and activity for use in clinical transplant practice. A total of 210 patients with moderate or severe chronic graft-versus-host disease were enrolled in a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study (clinicaltrials.gov identifier: 00092235). Experienced ophthalmologists determined presence of ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease, diagnosis and activity. Measures gathered by the transplant clinician included Schirmer's tear test and National Institutes of Health 0-3 Eye Score. Patient-reported outcome measures were the ocular subscale of the Lee Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease Symptom Scale and Chief Eye Symptom Intensity Score. Altogether, 157 (75%) patients were diagnosed with ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease; 133 of 157 patients (85%) had active disease. In a multivariable model, the National Institutes of Health Eye Score (P<0.0001) and Schirmer's tear test (P<0.0001) were independent predictors of ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease (sensitivity 93.0%, specificity 92.2%). The Lee ocular subscale was the strongest predictor of active ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease (P<0.0001) (sensitivity 68.5%, specificity 82.6%). Ophthalmology specialist measures that were most strongly predictive of diagnosis in a multivariate model were Oxford grand total staining (P<0.0001) and meibomian score (P=0.027). These results support the use of selected transplant clinician- and patient-reported outcome measures for ocular chronic graft-versus-host disease screening when providing care to allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation survivors with moderate to severe chronic graft-versus-host disease. Prospective studies are needed to determine if the Lee ocular subscale demonstrates adequate responsiveness as a disease activity outcome measure.